The advent of rapid technological development has prompted philosophical investigation into the ways in which societal values might adapt or evolve in response to changing circumstances. One such approach is axiological futurism, a discipline that endeavors to anticipate potential shifts in value systems proactively. The research article at hand makes a significant contribution to the developing field of axiological futurism, proposing innovative methods for predicting potential trajectories of value change. This article from Jeroen Hopster underscores the complexity and nuance inherent in such a task, acknowledging the myriad factors influencing the evolution of societal values.
His research presents an interdisciplinary approach to advance axiological futurism, drawing parallels between the philosophy of technology and climate scholarship, two distinct yet surprisingly complementary fields. Both fields, it argues, share an anticipatory nature, characterized by a future orientation and a firm grounding in substantial uncertainty. Notably, the article positions climate science’s sophisticated modelling techniques as instructive for philosophical studies, promoting the use of similar predictive models in axiological futurism. The approach suggested in the article enriches the discourse on futures studies by integrating strategies from climate science and principles from historical moral change, presenting an enlightened perspective on the anticipatory framework.
Theoretical Framework
The theoretical framework of the article is rooted in the concept of axiological possibility spaces, a means to anticipate future moral change based on a deep historical understanding of past transformations in societal values. The researcher proposes that these spaces represent realistic possibilities of value change, where ‘realism’ is a function of historical conditioning. To illustrate, processes of moralisation and demoralisation are considered historical markers that offer predictive insights into future moral transitions. Moralisation is construed as the phenomenon wherein previously neutral or non-moral issues acquire moral significance, while demoralisation refers to the converse. As the research paper posits, these processes are essential to understanding how technology could engender shifts in societal values.
In particular, the research identifies two key factors—technological affordances and the emergence of societal challenges—as instrumental in driving moralisation or demoralisation processes. The author suggests that these factors collectively engender realistic possibilities within the axiological possibility space. Notably, the concept of technological affordances serves to underline how new technologies, by enabling or constraining certain behaviors, can precipitate changes in societal values. On the other hand, societal challenges are posited to stimulate moral transformations in response to shifting social dynamics. Taken together, this theoretical framework stands as an innovative schema for the anticipation of future moral change, thereby contributing to the discourse of axiological futurism.
Axiological Possibility Space and Lessons from Climate Scholarship
The concept of an axiological possibility space, as developed in the research article, operates as a predictive instrument for anticipating future value change in societal norms and morals. This space is not a projection of all hypothetical future moral changes, but rather a compilation of realistic possibilities. The author defines these realistic possibilities as those rooted in the past and present, inextricably tied to the historical conditioning of moral trends. Utilizing historical patterns of moralisation and demoralisation, the author contends that these processes, in concert with the introduction of new technologies and arising societal challenges, provide us with plausible trajectories for future moral change. As such, the axiological possibility space serves as a tool to articulate these historically grounded projections, offering a valuable contribution to the field of anticipatory ethics and, more broadly, to the philosophy of futures studies.
A central insight from the article emerges from the intersection of futures studies and climate scholarship. The author skillfully extracts lessons from the way climate change prediction models operate, particularly the CMIP models utilized by the IPCC, and their subsequent shortcomings in the face of substantial uncertainty. The idea that the intricacies of predictive modeling can sometimes overshadow the focus on potentially disastrous outcomes is critically assessed. The author contends that the realm of axiological futurism could face similar issues and hence should take heed. Notably, the call for a shift from prediction-centric frameworks to a scenario approach that can articulate the spectrum of realistic possibilities is emphasized. This scenario approach, currently being developed in climate science under the term “storyline approach,” underlines the importance of compound risks and maintains a robust focus on potentially high-impact events. The author suggests that the axiological futurist could profitably adopt a similar strategy, exploring value change in technomoral scenarios, to successfully navigate the deep uncertainties intrinsic to predicting future moral norms.
Integration into Practical Fields and Relating to Broader Philosophical Discourse
The transfer of the theoretical discussion into pragmatic fields is achieved in the research with a thoughtful examination of its potential applications, primarily in value-sensitive design. By suggesting a need for engineers to take into consideration the dynamics of moralisation and demoralisation, the author not only proposes a shift in perspective, but also creates a bridge between theoretical discourse and practical implementation. Importantly, it is argued that a future-proof design requires an assessment of the probability of embedded values shifting in moral significance over time. The research paper goes further, introducing a risk-based approach to the design process, where engineers should not merely identify likely value changes but rather seek out those changes that render the design most vulnerable from a moral perspective. The mitigation of these high-risk value changes then becomes a priority in design adaptation, solidifying the article’s argument that axiological futurism is an essential tool in technological development.
The author’s analysis also presents a substantial contribution to the broader philosophical discourse, notably the philosophy of futures studies and the ethics of technology. By integrating concepts from climatology and axiology, the work demonstrates an interdisciplinary approach that enriches philosophical discourse, emphasizing how diverse scientific fields can illuminate complex ethical issues in technology. Importantly, the work builds on and critiques the ideas of prominent thinkers like John Danaher, pushing for a more diversified and pragmatic approach in axiological futurism, rather than a singular reliance on model-based projections. The research also introduces the critical notion of “realistic possibilities” into the discourse, enriching our understanding of anticipatory ethics. It advocates for a shift in focus towards salient normative risks, drawing parallels to climate change scholarship and highlighting the necessity for anticipatory endeavours to be both scientifically plausible and ethically insightful. This approach has potential for a significant impact on philosophical studies concerning value change and the ethical implications of future technologies.
Future Research Directions
The study furnishes ample opportunities for future research in the philosophy of futures studies, particularly concerning the integration of its insights into practical fields and its implications for anticipatory ethics. The author’s exploration of axiological possibility spaces remains an open-ended endeavor; further work could be conducted to investigate the specific criteria or heuristic models that could guide ethical assessments within these spaces. The potential application of these concepts in different technological domains, beyond AI and climate change, also presents an inviting avenue of inquiry. Moreover, as the author has adopted lessons from climate scholarship, similar interdisciplinary approaches could be employed to incorporate insights from other scientific disciplines. Perhaps most intriguingly, the research introduces a call for a critical exploration of “realistic possibilities,” an area that is ripe for in-depth theoretical and empirical examination. Future research could build upon this foundational concept, investigating its broader implications, refining its methodological underpinnings, and exploring its potential impact on policy making and technological design.
Abstract
The co-shaping of technology and values is a topic of increasing interest among philosophers of technology. Part of this interest pertains to anticipating future value change, or what Danaher (2021) calls the investigation of ‘axiological futurism’. However, this investigation faces a challenge: ‘axiological possibility space’ is vast, and we currently lack a clear account of how this space should be demarcated. It stands to reason that speculations about how values might change over time should exclude farfetched possibilities and be restricted to possibilities that can be dubbed realistic. But what does this realism criterion entail? This article introduces the notion of ‘realistic possibilities’ as a key conceptual advancement to the study of axiological futurism and offers suggestions as to how realistic possibilities of future value change might be identified. Additionally, two slight modifications to the approach of axiological futurism are proposed. First, axiological futurism can benefit from a more thoroughly historicized understanding of moral change. Secondly, when employed in service of normative aims, the axiological futurist should pay specific attention to identifying realistic possibilities that come with substantial normative risks.
Future value change: Identifying realistic possibilities and risks